I've been keeping track of Comscore's numbers for a while and I've been looking for the Verizon bump that iPhones were supposed to receive. Looking at the derivative of the trends there does appear to be a small change but the effect is small and Android's growth is still about 3x the iPhone's.
One thing to consider is that these numbers are market share, they don't show how the overall pie is growing.
(By the way, Comscore wants you to pay for historical data so they wouldn't like this being posted publicly, but I've been collecting this data from their press releases.)
First, thanks for the historical data. That's nice to see.
But it doesn't seem to me that we'd expect to see an immediate bump in iPhone's numbers from Verizon for at least three reasons unrelated to the platform's (potential) desirability:
1) The iPhone has a lot more competition among Verizon customers. For a while, if you wanted a good smartphone with AT&T, you were getting an iPhone. We wouldn't expect to see "auto-flocking" to the iPhone on Verizon like there was on AT&T for that reason.
2) Contract rollover inhibits fast reaction to new developments. I know a substantial number of people who went Android with the Motorola Droid release in November, 2009. For a 2 year contract, that means November, 2011 is when those customers will be reevaluating their smartphone brand.
3) For some people who wanted an iPhone, they probably bought an iPhone regardless of the network. iPhone on Verizon was (or will be) a chance for some people to change carriers and keep the phone they love.
I think those three factors inhibit a massive switch to iPhone simply because of its availability on a new carrier. Other factors may play a role, too. For instance, AT&T put a lot of their own advertising weight behind the iPhone. Verizon hasn't platformed the iPhone in the same way.
Comments
I've been keeping track of Comscore's numbers for a while and I've been looking for the Verizon bump that iPhones were supposed to receive. Looking at the derivative of the trends there does appear to be a small change but the effect is small and Android's growth is still about 3x the iPhone's.
Historical market share: http://i.imgur.com/Aj7og.png Change per month: http://i.imgur.com/2qIqH.png
One thing to consider is that these numbers are market share, they don't show how the overall pie is growing.
(By the way, Comscore wants you to pay for historical data so they wouldn't like this being posted publicly, but I've been collecting this data from their press releases.)
First, thanks for the historical data. That's nice to see.
But it doesn't seem to me that we'd expect to see an immediate bump in iPhone's numbers from Verizon for at least three reasons unrelated to the platform's (potential) desirability:
1) The iPhone has a lot more competition among Verizon customers. For a while, if you wanted a good smartphone with AT&T, you were getting an iPhone. We wouldn't expect to see "auto-flocking" to the iPhone on Verizon like there was on AT&T for that reason.
2) Contract rollover inhibits fast reaction to new developments. I know a substantial number of people who went Android with the Motorola Droid release in November, 2009. For a 2 year contract, that means November, 2011 is when those customers will be reevaluating their smartphone brand.
3) For some people who wanted an iPhone, they probably bought an iPhone regardless of the network. iPhone on Verizon was (or will be) a chance for some people to change carriers and keep the phone they love.
I think those three factors inhibit a massive switch to iPhone simply because of its availability on a new carrier. Other factors may play a role, too. For instance, AT&T put a lot of their own advertising weight behind the iPhone. Verizon hasn't platformed the iPhone in the same way.