This is a social-based startup, not a technology-based startup.
It sounds like technology, because cool-sounding mathematical prediction is the selling point... But it isn't that hard to do (though with data, and time, you can surely incrementally improve it). The story here is a community-known credential. Its value comes from other people relying on it as a baseline. Like any other credential, it doesn't guarantee you'll be any good - but it is a better-than-random predictor.
Because there isn't anything like this available already, and it would be a useful thing to have, they have a good chance. For it to be used as a reference point, it doesn't need to be great - it just needs to be betterer- enough -than random (and get adopted).
A "good predictor" just means "5% better than totally random". If you have a strong team, and good connections... your chances are surely better than if you had a weak team and no connections (though exceptions occur in both ways). If you can formalize a bunch of these factors, and find what they weigh... you have a baseline predictor that's better than totally random.
Comments
This is a social-based startup, not a technology-based startup.
It sounds like technology, because cool-sounding mathematical prediction is the selling point... But it isn't that hard to do (though with data, and time, you can surely incrementally improve it). The story here is a community-known credential. Its value comes from other people relying on it as a baseline. Like any other credential, it doesn't guarantee you'll be any good - but it is a better-than-random predictor.
Because there isn't anything like this available already, and it would be a useful thing to have, they have a good chance. For it to be used as a reference point, it doesn't need to be great - it just needs to be betterer- enough -than random (and get adopted).
A "good predictor" just means "5% better than totally random". If you have a strong team, and good connections... your chances are surely better than if you had a weak team and no connections (though exceptions occur in both ways). If you can formalize a bunch of these factors, and find what they weigh... you have a baseline predictor that's better than totally random.