As the other guy points out, we have a lot bigger problems than Bitcoin falling.
But it likely won't happen at all. Lots of work is being done on quantum proof cryptography[1]. IT systems and crypto can be upgraded to use it.
The real problem is going to be all the stashed encrypted data that US and China have stored on each other of a sensitive nature. The encryption on this information could be cracked by a quantum computer.
The real problem is going to be all the stashed encrypted data that US and China have stored on each other of a sensitive nature
While there's no doubt they've stored lots of encrypted messages sent by each other, would it really be such a huge catastrophe if those messages were decrypted years after they were sent? Presumably neither side is sending the most sensitive information that has long-term value (like weapons designs) across a channel the other can read, encrypted or not. And the US and Chinese governments losing control of some of their secrets wouldn't necessarily be a net negative for the world anyway. Snowden "decrypted" some of the US's secrets and we are better off for it.
The bigger threat isn't both sides decrypting each other's stored messages, it's one side breaking the other's encryption without them knowing, like what happened with the Enigma in WWII.
Unfortunately the work being done on post quantum cryptography is mostly on the topic of symmetric key agreement (since that is what TLS needs), and cryptocurrencies need digital signature and/ zero knowledge proof systems. There is comparably much less work being done on solving those problems.
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As the other guy points out, we have a lot bigger problems than Bitcoin falling.
But it likely won't happen at all. Lots of work is being done on quantum proof cryptography[1]. IT systems and crypto can be upgraded to use it.
The real problem is going to be all the stashed encrypted data that US and China have stored on each other of a sensitive nature. The encryption on this information could be cracked by a quantum computer.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography
While there's no doubt they've stored lots of encrypted messages sent by each other, would it really be such a huge catastrophe if those messages were decrypted years after they were sent? Presumably neither side is sending the most sensitive information that has long-term value (like weapons designs) across a channel the other can read, encrypted or not. And the US and Chinese governments losing control of some of their secrets wouldn't necessarily be a net negative for the world anyway. Snowden "decrypted" some of the US's secrets and we are better off for it.
The bigger threat isn't both sides decrypting each other's stored messages, it's one side breaking the other's encryption without them knowing, like what happened with the Enigma in WWII.
https://youtu.be/I3BJVaioX_k at around the 10:30 mark should make the point.
Unfortunately the work being done on post quantum cryptography is mostly on the topic of symmetric key agreement (since that is what TLS needs), and cryptocurrencies need digital signature and/ zero knowledge proof systems. There is comparably much less work being done on solving those problems.
Er TLS also needs signatures, and there’s a ton of work on PQ signatures
The NIST post quantum competition is for a replacement to diffie Hellman key agreement only. TLS doesn’t need signatures for that.