If we can extrapolate Falcon 9 and Dragon development to Starship, then yes. It took 9 years (2011 finding partners, 2014 final contracts signed, 2020 first astronauts to space) from the concept contract to commercial crew delivery on the F9 with the Crew Dragon.
Falcon 9 took SpaceX from concept (2005) to first integration testing (2008) to first flight (2010). Landing the core went from 'impossible' to small scale tests (2013) to recovery tests and landing of used boosters (2015).
Yes, they're doing all of this, again, all at once. But I dont see a reason why they couldn't pull it off. They've done so once already, and so far, they are on track. Their timer for me starts in 2016 with the unveiling of the BFR. Integration testing & landing validation started in 2019, and sticking a landing (albeit not orbital) is expected any day now (and that I mean literally, there's a test scheduled for today)
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Serious question, but does anyone think this will actually happen within a decade?
Elon has motivated some amazing people to do some amazing things, but this seems like pure PR/Marketing theatre to me.
I hope I’m wrong, but... very skeptical of stuff like this.
If we can extrapolate Falcon 9 and Dragon development to Starship, then yes. It took 9 years (2011 finding partners, 2014 final contracts signed, 2020 first astronauts to space) from the concept contract to commercial crew delivery on the F9 with the Crew Dragon.
Falcon 9 took SpaceX from concept (2005) to first integration testing (2008) to first flight (2010). Landing the core went from 'impossible' to small scale tests (2013) to recovery tests and landing of used boosters (2015).
Yes, they're doing all of this, again, all at once. But I dont see a reason why they couldn't pull it off. They've done so once already, and so far, they are on track. Their timer for me starts in 2016 with the unveiling of the BFR. Integration testing & landing validation started in 2019, and sticking a landing (albeit not orbital) is expected any day now (and that I mean literally, there's a test scheduled for today)
I think chances are good, at least if progress at Boca Chica (soon to be known as Starbase, TX) continues at its current pace.