China and Japan are nothing alike, so the entire argument here is moot.
Additionally, the average Chinese person is beyond capitalistic. China is hyper-capitalist, if anything. And no other country needs to look after 1.3B people, so China is essentially the first experiment in government for a population of that size.
China's going to become the world's largest economy -- there's essentially no doubt about this. Americans need to get used to not being #1 anymore. I know it's hard to swallow. :)
The world is going to look very, very different in 10 years.
"China and Japan are nothing alike...." they are alike in the sense that both were/are supposed to overshadow the American economy at different points in time. That is the only comparison intended.
Yes, Chinese people are certainly extremely capitalistic - no doubt. However, there is some serious issues to be sorted out to allow China to continue to grow.
There is no oversight on their unelected government - who knows the level of corruption, groupthink, nepotism etc. that goes on. This is bound to be a big obstacle sooner or later. Democracy has many flaws, but one of it's main advantages is that when the ordinary citizen can see that the government is acting in a manner against the best interest of the people, then at least they have the option to correct that.
Secondly, there appears to be a major housing bubble underway. If history has anything to teach us, it's that the faster a bubble inflates, all the more rapid it's contraction. We will more than likely see a correction, perhaps a recession in China in the coming decade. Real estate cannot be continually be bought up by speculators in the hope that prices keep rising forever - and the culture in China is not to rent out your investment property (i.e. your second or third apartment you bought to speculate with)! This is clearly unsustainable. They are gambling that real estate values always rise, and this is clearly bubble territory.
"China's going to become the world's largest economy -- there's essentially no doubt about this."
I think it will also - but perhaps not as fast as you think. It could take decades. The GDP growth figures the Chinese government put are look suspicious, just to point out one problem. What you could see happening is China overtaking the US in the next few years - then a recession hits and the economy contracts rapidly. Or the US partially writes down it's massive debts, and the Chinese panic because they are holding a huge mountain of partially/wholly worthless US sovereign debt. This means the Chinese cannot continue using the interest from US debt to fund the construction of massive capital infrastructure projects - also leading to a recession. Maybe WWIII. Who knows. Predictions are fun.
"Americans need to get used to not being #1 anymore" Not yet they don't. Who knows what will happen. Btw, I'm not even American (or Chinese) so I'm not saying this in a defensive manner. :)
"The world is going to look very, very different in 10 years." - this a truism!
Comments
China and Japan are nothing alike, so the entire argument here is moot.
Additionally, the average Chinese person is beyond capitalistic. China is hyper-capitalist, if anything. And no other country needs to look after 1.3B people, so China is essentially the first experiment in government for a population of that size.
China's going to become the world's largest economy -- there's essentially no doubt about this. Americans need to get used to not being #1 anymore. I know it's hard to swallow. :)
The world is going to look very, very different in 10 years.
"China and Japan are nothing alike...." they are alike in the sense that both were/are supposed to overshadow the American economy at different points in time. That is the only comparison intended.
Yes, Chinese people are certainly extremely capitalistic - no doubt. However, there is some serious issues to be sorted out to allow China to continue to grow.
There is no oversight on their unelected government - who knows the level of corruption, groupthink, nepotism etc. that goes on. This is bound to be a big obstacle sooner or later. Democracy has many flaws, but one of it's main advantages is that when the ordinary citizen can see that the government is acting in a manner against the best interest of the people, then at least they have the option to correct that.
Secondly, there appears to be a major housing bubble underway. If history has anything to teach us, it's that the faster a bubble inflates, all the more rapid it's contraction. We will more than likely see a correction, perhaps a recession in China in the coming decade. Real estate cannot be continually be bought up by speculators in the hope that prices keep rising forever - and the culture in China is not to rent out your investment property (i.e. your second or third apartment you bought to speculate with)! This is clearly unsustainable. They are gambling that real estate values always rise, and this is clearly bubble territory.
"China's going to become the world's largest economy -- there's essentially no doubt about this."
I think it will also - but perhaps not as fast as you think. It could take decades. The GDP growth figures the Chinese government put are look suspicious, just to point out one problem. What you could see happening is China overtaking the US in the next few years - then a recession hits and the economy contracts rapidly. Or the US partially writes down it's massive debts, and the Chinese panic because they are holding a huge mountain of partially/wholly worthless US sovereign debt. This means the Chinese cannot continue using the interest from US debt to fund the construction of massive capital infrastructure projects - also leading to a recession. Maybe WWIII. Who knows. Predictions are fun.
"Americans need to get used to not being #1 anymore" Not yet they don't. Who knows what will happen. Btw, I'm not even American (or Chinese) so I'm not saying this in a defensive manner. :)
"The world is going to look very, very different in 10 years." - this a truism!