Be aware of incentives. Can the person speak their mind freely? If they're an institution, who funds it? If they're an individual, what are their incentives? Or, are they Elon Musk, in which case none of this counts?

I lack the epistemological certitude to propose a "filter", but I'd say a strong "red flag" in evaluating thinkpieces about whose predictions you should take seriously would be "anybody who elevates technology workers above others because computers are eating the world".