I can see this one backfiring if someone's livelihood depends on their past predictions being correct. Now they have a strong incentive to double down on those predictions, and dismiss contradictory evidence.
Anyone whose livelihood depends on providing a solution to Problem X will assure you that X will continue to be a problem well into the future. This is visible everywhere in both for-profit and non-profit organizations.
I don't doubt that the people who run MADD sincerely believe that drunk driving was a pressing problem when they joined. But are they ever really going to tell you that drunk driving has been successfully addressed and isn't a problem anymore? Or that they were wrong after all, and it never was a problem? (I just picked MADD randomly. Substitute the mission-driven organization of your choice.)
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I can see this one backfiring if someone's livelihood depends on their past predictions being correct. Now they have a strong incentive to double down on those predictions, and dismiss contradictory evidence.
Anyone whose livelihood depends on providing a solution to Problem X will assure you that X will continue to be a problem well into the future. This is visible everywhere in both for-profit and non-profit organizations.
I don't doubt that the people who run MADD sincerely believe that drunk driving was a pressing problem when they joined. But are they ever really going to tell you that drunk driving has been successfully addressed and isn't a problem anymore? Or that they were wrong after all, and it never was a problem? (I just picked MADD randomly. Substitute the mission-driven organization of your choice.)