It was bold to lay out two criteria in direct tension with one another and then not address the tension.
1. Be wary of views coming from people who are not free to speak their minds on the topic at hand, because of their existing incentives.
2. Favor views from those who get paid for being right, discount views from those who get paid for sounding right.
In order to get paid for being right, you have to place a bet. Once you've placed a bet, you have incentives and aren't free to speak your mind. Obviously these are both matters of degree and some compromise can be had, but the process of hashing out the compromise seems like the "secret compartment" into which these filters squeeze all of the original complexity.
Comments
It was bold to lay out two criteria in direct tension with one another and then not address the tension.
1. Be wary of views coming from people who are not free to speak their minds on the topic at hand, because of their existing incentives.
2. Favor views from those who get paid for being right, discount views from those who get paid for sounding right.
In order to get paid for being right, you have to place a bet. Once you've placed a bet, you have incentives and aren't free to speak your mind. Obviously these are both matters of degree and some compromise can be had, but the process of hashing out the compromise seems like the "secret compartment" into which these filters squeeze all of the original complexity.