I have no more evidence than you do, so take it with a grain of salt; but I think you're mistaken on the intelligence axis. As in, I think the distance from GPT-3 right now to average human, is way larger than from avg human to Einstein. And I agree we're not that far from replacing the work of an average human.
I think I agree with those points. However, the most interesting thing about GPT-3 in my mind is how it was largely a naive scaling up of GPT-2.
I would be very surprised to not see a GPT-4-like system built in the next several years by simply scaling up by 100x again (perhaps with some algorithmic improvements thrown in as well). I don’t know how it will perform but I expect it to be significantly more impressive than GPT-3. Which would be a very interesting thing... the world would look very different. Potentially even scary, especially with immediate follow-up reapplications of the techniques in other areas.
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I have no more evidence than you do, so take it with a grain of salt; but I think you're mistaken on the intelligence axis. As in, I think the distance from GPT-3 right now to average human, is way larger than from avg human to Einstein. And I agree we're not that far from replacing the work of an average human.
I think I agree with those points. However, the most interesting thing about GPT-3 in my mind is how it was largely a naive scaling up of GPT-2.
I would be very surprised to not see a GPT-4-like system built in the next several years by simply scaling up by 100x again (perhaps with some algorithmic improvements thrown in as well). I don’t know how it will perform but I expect it to be significantly more impressive than GPT-3. Which would be a very interesting thing... the world would look very different. Potentially even scary, especially with immediate follow-up reapplications of the techniques in other areas.