Note, Japan's ascension to the largest economy in the world was also "guaranteed" near the end of the Cold War. We can all see plainly how such claims have played out.
You have to admit that the possibility of a global hegemony is more likely today than ever in modern history. An unlikely event, however, is still unlikely, no matter the rate at which it increases in likelihood. Our prerogative now is to carefully monitor this increasing rate, lest it somehow escape our attention while becoming unavoidable.
Interestingly, Japan ended up going down a low-growth path in part due to demographics--lots of old people, not many immigrants. China's former one child policy and a preference for boys set the stage for stagnation in 10-20 years. China just has 10x the population of Japan.
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Note, Japan's ascension to the largest economy in the world was also "guaranteed" near the end of the Cold War. We can all see plainly how such claims have played out.
You have to admit that the possibility of a global hegemony is more likely today than ever in modern history. An unlikely event, however, is still unlikely, no matter the rate at which it increases in likelihood. Our prerogative now is to carefully monitor this increasing rate, lest it somehow escape our attention while becoming unavoidable.
Interestingly, Japan ended up going down a low-growth path in part due to demographics--lots of old people, not many immigrants. China's former one child policy and a preference for boys set the stage for stagnation in 10-20 years. China just has 10x the population of Japan.
https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/china-...