Transportation is a whole other problem, but with fewer people riding and higher-risk people staying home for a longer period, it seems that the actual risk to human life can be reduced.
I really believe that at some point long before this is over we are going to have to start exposing certain people to some quantifiably small risk, even knowing that they may spread it to others. The alternative (total economic shutdown for 12-18 months) really just isn't feasible. We are in for harm no matter what, but at some point we will have to pick our poison.
Mortality rate in a situation without ICU care shortage is apparently around 1%, and that will likely go down even further as we get better at treating it. If it's primarily younger people being exposed, that number shrinks by an order of magnitude or more. Widespread acquired immunity ought to reduce its ability to spread, assuming that's how it works (I believe the consensus is that yes, this is likely). Targeted contact tracing within high-risk communities can be used to manage that risk, once things are better understood. So really I think things are not as dire as they may appear, as long as we take decisive action now and only proceed when the situation is stable and we have data in hand.
We will probably be overwhelmed to some degree within the next few weeks, but people should refrain from panicking and keep their eyes on the ball. If we can just manage to come up for air after the initial wave, I think chances are we can get through it without a total collapse.
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Depends a lot on how people get to that factory. If they take public transport I think you're exposing a lot of people to a lot of contact.
even worse, Tesla buses them there, look at the scene this morning: https://twitter.com/russ1mitchell/status/1239976885867573249...
Transportation is a whole other problem, but with fewer people riding and higher-risk people staying home for a longer period, it seems that the actual risk to human life can be reduced.
I really believe that at some point long before this is over we are going to have to start exposing certain people to some quantifiably small risk, even knowing that they may spread it to others. The alternative (total economic shutdown for 12-18 months) really just isn't feasible. We are in for harm no matter what, but at some point we will have to pick our poison.
Mortality rate in a situation without ICU care shortage is apparently around 1%, and that will likely go down even further as we get better at treating it. If it's primarily younger people being exposed, that number shrinks by an order of magnitude or more. Widespread acquired immunity ought to reduce its ability to spread, assuming that's how it works (I believe the consensus is that yes, this is likely). Targeted contact tracing within high-risk communities can be used to manage that risk, once things are better understood. So really I think things are not as dire as they may appear, as long as we take decisive action now and only proceed when the situation is stable and we have data in hand.
We will probably be overwhelmed to some degree within the next few weeks, but people should refrain from panicking and keep their eyes on the ball. If we can just manage to come up for air after the initial wave, I think chances are we can get through it without a total collapse.