Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India).
Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapidly in March up to barely any case in April [2]. This by no means try to diminish actions to be cautious, or the risk it imposes. However, if you are asked to put money on a certain direction, betting on warming up weather reducing the R value of the virus enough to stop it is what I would do.
While i think you are right about that the coronavirus will most likely decline as the weather heats up, I think a better comparison to look at would be the Sars epidemic in 2003 rather than the flu.
In that case, rather than diminishing rapidly in March, it diminished in May. [1]
Comments
Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India).
Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapidly in March up to barely any case in April [2]. This by no means try to diminish actions to be cautious, or the risk it imposes. However, if you are asked to put money on a certain direction, betting on warming up weather reducing the R value of the virus enough to stop it is what I would do.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Sort by new cases) [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
While i think you are right about that the coronavirus will most likely decline as the weather heats up, I think a better comparison to look at would be the Sars epidemic in 2003 rather than the flu.
In that case, rather than diminishing rapidly in March, it diminished in May. [1]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...
In either case, any step at delaying the spread of the virus will have a dramatic effect on the ultimate death toll.
...and that's not surprising given the vulnerability data we have on SARS: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3265313/
COVID19 is likely very similar.
Very true! But the second wave, when winter returns in October, hit even harder [0]
See Deadly second wave section in the Spanish Flu [0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
This time, though, we will see it in advance as it tears through the Southern Hemisphere.
This is obviously a possibility. The longer term is harder to predict.
More time to prepare and possibly ship a vaccine for a second wave.
When I see a log plot bending up, my default assumption is stunning growth for a considerable period.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...
Or it could be an indication that in some countries, the current weather enables exponential growth. This could rapidly change as it did in China.
Or it could be that the rest of the world is not flying back-and-forth between China or Italy
That’s not what we are seeing though. Australia and Singapore are good example of many cases from foreign origins but little to none community spread
I wonder if this is also the reason it's been mostly concentrated on the United States' west coast so far, seemingly to the north end