It's very hard to have an informed opinion on the virus. Different actors have different incentives. Medias try to sell ads, politicians want to be elected (or not held responsible), institutions like WHO are political (I don't really trust them after seeing their treatment of Taiwan) and have their own agendd, even experts have their own biases and are selected by medias. And we are all deeply biased, and tend to look up exactly what we want to hear.
After reading a lot of information, my bet is that the virus itself is in the same league as a bad seasonal flu (I heard that from at least two experts, and from my MD), and we'll suffer more from our bad handling of the situation, rather than from the virus itself. We should deal with this virus exactly how we deal with seasonal flu. Stay home and wear a surgical mask when we're sick, go to see our MD (wearing a mask) if we have mild symptoms, and go to hospital if we have severe symptoms. Generally, avoid close contacts, don't shake hands and so on.
That being said, better be safe than sorry. I personally will work remotely and avoid public transportations for the following month until we have more information.
It would be great if you could share your reasoning and information as to why you think this is just a bad flu. I have been seeing information from China that says the death rate is 20-30 times higher than the flu and that the hospitalization rate could be up to 20%. Other than China, most countries haven't been infected long enough to do studies on the final fatality or hospitalization rate.
Mortality rate in China is overestimated because they tested primarily the most severe cases. From [1]:
"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
Also there were 3000 death in China, and new cases are declining. In France alone (20 times less people), it's common to have 10000 death annually from the flu. Of course, China enforced strict containment measures and we don't know the exact numbers, but overall the death toll seem rather small. Why should we expect much worse in the West? And finally, it's not sure, but some experts expect the virus to decline with warmer temperatures. So overall, I'd say there's room for optimism.
The reason we should expect worse in the West is because China put hundreds of millions of people under some level of quarantine control. If we don't enact those kinds of measures, we can expect higher numbers of infections and deaths.
I do hope that the death and hospitalization rate ends up being lower and am awaiting studies based on places like the towns in the Italian red zone where they tested every resident and the Diamond Princess. If the rates end up anywhere near the initial estimates, the hospital capacity situation could become very serious unless we enact quarantines.
Just to be clear people, don’t just go to the doctor if you think you might have coronavirus — call first and seek their professional recommendation. They may want to come to you to do a swab, rather than have people randomly walking in and possibly infecting others.
Actually, very few people have reasons to think they have the coronavirus now. Of course, if you come back from an infected area, you should be extra careful and follow standard procedures defined by your local government. Right now most people with flu symptoms simply have a cold or the flu, and not the wuhan virus.
I've just listened to an interview of a French doctor and what is happening now is that hospitals are getting overwhelmed with regular people who want to be tested for the coronavirus.
The coronavirus isn't that different from a regular flu virus in terms of care. Mostly, you just need to stay home waiting for it to pass (and of course avoid infecting others). Only people with severe symptoms should go to the hospital.
I am inclined to agree that it's difficult to form a good opinion here: the information available is horridly imperfect and even conflicting. I saw a news article a couple of days ago that said masks don't help prevent you from getting the virus, yet that very article included a WHO infographic encouraging the public to buy and wear masks. Alas...
The correct particle filter masks will obviously protect. The risk is that by providing that guideline you risk disruption in the supply chain.
There isn't enough world production and stock for the average joe to panic stockpile N95 masks.
The likely reason for this walking back in the recommendation is that 1) most people don't know mask sizes and how to fit a mask 2) if we have a limited stock then priority should be given to health workers who have to handle infected patients on a daily basis.
Comments
It's very hard to have an informed opinion on the virus. Different actors have different incentives. Medias try to sell ads, politicians want to be elected (or not held responsible), institutions like WHO are political (I don't really trust them after seeing their treatment of Taiwan) and have their own agendd, even experts have their own biases and are selected by medias. And we are all deeply biased, and tend to look up exactly what we want to hear.
After reading a lot of information, my bet is that the virus itself is in the same league as a bad seasonal flu (I heard that from at least two experts, and from my MD), and we'll suffer more from our bad handling of the situation, rather than from the virus itself. We should deal with this virus exactly how we deal with seasonal flu. Stay home and wear a surgical mask when we're sick, go to see our MD (wearing a mask) if we have mild symptoms, and go to hospital if we have severe symptoms. Generally, avoid close contacts, don't shake hands and so on.
That being said, better be safe than sorry. I personally will work remotely and avoid public transportations for the following month until we have more information.
It would be great if you could share your reasoning and information as to why you think this is just a bad flu. I have been seeing information from China that says the death rate is 20-30 times higher than the flu and that the hospitalization rate could be up to 20%. Other than China, most countries haven't been infected long enough to do studies on the final fatality or hospitalization rate.
Mortality rate in China is overestimated because they tested primarily the most severe cases. From [1]:
"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Also there were 3000 death in China, and new cases are declining. In France alone (20 times less people), it's common to have 10000 death annually from the flu. Of course, China enforced strict containment measures and we don't know the exact numbers, but overall the death toll seem rather small. Why should we expect much worse in the West? And finally, it's not sure, but some experts expect the virus to decline with warmer temperatures. So overall, I'd say there's room for optimism.
The reason we should expect worse in the West is because China put hundreds of millions of people under some level of quarantine control. If we don't enact those kinds of measures, we can expect higher numbers of infections and deaths.
I do hope that the death and hospitalization rate ends up being lower and am awaiting studies based on places like the towns in the Italian red zone where they tested every resident and the Diamond Princess. If the rates end up anywhere near the initial estimates, the hospital capacity situation could become very serious unless we enact quarantines.
Just to be clear people, don’t just go to the doctor if you think you might have coronavirus — call first and seek their professional recommendation. They may want to come to you to do a swab, rather than have people randomly walking in and possibly infecting others.
Actually, very few people have reasons to think they have the coronavirus now. Of course, if you come back from an infected area, you should be extra careful and follow standard procedures defined by your local government. Right now most people with flu symptoms simply have a cold or the flu, and not the wuhan virus.
I've just listened to an interview of a French doctor and what is happening now is that hospitals are getting overwhelmed with regular people who want to be tested for the coronavirus.
The coronavirus isn't that different from a regular flu virus in terms of care. Mostly, you just need to stay home waiting for it to pass (and of course avoid infecting others). Only people with severe symptoms should go to the hospital.
The CDC has said the exact opposite of this. The WHO estimated an initial mortality rate of 3.4%, whereas the flu is well below 1%.
Your GP and some unnamed internet "expert" sources are wrong.
I am inclined to agree that it's difficult to form a good opinion here: the information available is horridly imperfect and even conflicting. I saw a news article a couple of days ago that said masks don't help prevent you from getting the virus, yet that very article included a WHO infographic encouraging the public to buy and wear masks. Alas...
The correct particle filter masks will obviously protect. The risk is that by providing that guideline you risk disruption in the supply chain.
There isn't enough world production and stock for the average joe to panic stockpile N95 masks.
The likely reason for this walking back in the recommendation is that 1) most people don't know mask sizes and how to fit a mask 2) if we have a limited stock then priority should be given to health workers who have to handle infected patients on a daily basis.