Dr. Fauci's iceberg theory, that the cfr will decline as we identify more mild cases, is disputed by some in the WHO and some Chinese scientists, who argue the CFR is well supported from comprehensive testing of quarantined populations, which identify and account for mild and asymptomatic cases. One such study:
While the specific r0 and cfr are still under debate, there's no doubt this has rapidly absorbed hospital resources in hotspots in ways other coronaviruses haven't.
I don't think panic is the right answer, but people should prepare for the possibility this impacts their lives, judging from regions with cases and the continued spread to new regions. Quarantines, social distancing, fewer public activities, and extended hospitalizations of some older family members are all realistic scenarios.
Comments
Dr. Fauci's iceberg theory, that the cfr will decline as we identify more mild cases, is disputed by some in the WHO and some Chinese scientists, who argue the CFR is well supported from comprehensive testing of quarantined populations, which identify and account for mild and asymptomatic cases. One such study:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
While the specific r0 and cfr are still under debate, there's no doubt this has rapidly absorbed hospital resources in hotspots in ways other coronaviruses haven't.
I don't think panic is the right answer, but people should prepare for the possibility this impacts their lives, judging from regions with cases and the continued spread to new regions. Quarantines, social distancing, fewer public activities, and extended hospitalizations of some older family members are all realistic scenarios.