I think a lot of the comments in this discussion risk understating the potential impact of the virus. Yes, there are many unknowns, and we might not encounter the worst-case scenario. But many experts have basis for being worried, e.g. listen to these interviews [1,2]. It will take a while before the virus really spreads in the US/Europe but it seems pretty clear that it's not contained anymore. Remarks about the fatality rate cut both ways: if it's lower than reported it means that the virus is spreading faster than we think (more mild cases), if it's higher than reported there are going to be many more fatalities still. There are arguments to be made for both (lower: many mild cases go undetected, higher: reported fatality rates often seem to be calculated from active cases, not complete cases). Either way it's clear that in China the rate of infection was well beyond what hospitals could handle which seems to indicate that we might encounter similar issues.
Let's just be careful and be prepared, there really seems to be too little info to get comfortable with this at this point.
Either way it's clear that in China the rate of infection was well beyond what hospitals could handle which seems to indicate that we might encounter similar issues.
What's more concerning about what happened in China is that it overwhelmed their healthcare infrastructure even after they implemented what would otherwise be called martial law throughout the country for a period of time.
Comments
I think a lot of the comments in this discussion risk understating the potential impact of the virus. Yes, there are many unknowns, and we might not encounter the worst-case scenario. But many experts have basis for being worried, e.g. listen to these interviews [1,2]. It will take a while before the virus really spreads in the US/Europe but it seems pretty clear that it's not contained anymore. Remarks about the fatality rate cut both ways: if it's lower than reported it means that the virus is spreading faster than we think (more mild cases), if it's higher than reported there are going to be many more fatalities still. There are arguments to be made for both (lower: many mild cases go undetected, higher: reported fatality rates often seem to be calculated from active cases, not complete cases). Either way it's clear that in China the rate of infection was well beyond what hospitals could handle which seems to indicate that we might encounter similar issues.
Let's just be careful and be prepared, there really seems to be too little info to get comfortable with this at this point.
[1] https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/deep-background-with-noah-f...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/podcasts/the-daily/corona...
What's more concerning about what happened in China is that it overwhelmed their healthcare infrastructure even after they implemented what would otherwise be called martial law throughout the country for a period of time.