Right, it's still an unknown, which is why there's such a great concern.

As I have said before, if you are going to make a bet, you need to know the odds. We don't know the odds yet.

This also means that we can't be sure of any of these numbers.

Maybe the correct way to think of this isn't "people you know will die" but rather "people you know may die, so we need to be paranoid and prepare."