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Comment on The Feedback Fallacyparent

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? I still don't get it.

Averaging values with random divergence from the truth is useful. Averaging values with random divergence from nonsense is not.

Specifically, I don't get how is one random value is supposed to more accurate than many random values averaged.

I think that's more of a relative impact. When you have just one measurement, you know it's not particularly reliable. When you have a bunch, we are conditioned to think it's more reliable.

So in the latter case, the distance between its reliability and its perceived reliability is greater than in the former case.

I agree with you, that it has to do with perception of reliability. However, the article seems to state that there is an actual greater error with more inputs. That's what I don't understand.

"We cannot remove the error by adding more data inputs and averaging them out, and doing that actually makes the error bigger."

I don't see how it "makes the error bigger". Maybe I'm being too literal and the writer is truly referring to the perception of the results carrying more weight, and therefore having a "bigger error".

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