Comment on Internal FAA Review Saw High Risk of 737 Max CrashesparentComments−tzs6y1-(1-1/10000000)^500000 = 0.048770577854436836In other words, if all new plane models were as safe as the 737 (1 catastrophe per 10 million flights), about 5% of those new plane models would have at least one catastrophe within the first 500k flights.−Gibbon16yNow ask what's the chance that a new model has serious problems? What if that is also 5%. Then you have a 50/50 chance the plane is bad news.−nemonemo6yWhat about two? The probability would be much lower when IID is assumed?
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1-(1-1/10000000)^500000 = 0.048770577854436836
In other words, if all new plane models were as safe as the 737 (1 catastrophe per 10 million flights), about 5% of those new plane models would have at least one catastrophe within the first 500k flights.
Now ask what's the chance that a new model has serious problems? What if that is also 5%. Then you have a 50/50 chance the plane is bad news.
What about two? The probability would be much lower when IID is assumed?