The people making these predictions have great interest in making them false. It's quite possible the ETA keeps getting pushed back exactly because of things like Stuxnet.
It's not charitable, it's realistic. I think sometimes they succeed and sometimes they fail, like any organization. I don't assume they're completely incompetent when they fail, nor that they are perfect when they succeed.
A project like Iran's would have its own setbacks even in ideal environment. When there are organizations working against it, it's likely to have even more setbacks.
It is also possible that these people are simply irrational or paranoid. Intelligence is always fragmentary and uncertain, but people who are intent on believing that Iran is a deadly enemy about to acquire a vast nuclear arsenal can interpret arbitrary data to justify that belief.
I don't think it's in dispute that Iran has nuclear aspirations, or that it's an enemy of Sunnis and Jews in the Middle East.
Whether they would actually manage to build a bomb and whether they'd actually use it are different questions - but given the Middle East's practices and history, not ones people would tend to ponder too long over.
Comments
The people making these predictions have great interest in making them false. It's quite possible the ETA keeps getting pushed back exactly because of things like Stuxnet.
That's a remarkably charitable view of intelligence service/government statements given what we now know of Iraq's capabilities.
It's not charitable, it's realistic. I think sometimes they succeed and sometimes they fail, like any organization. I don't assume they're completely incompetent when they fail, nor that they are perfect when they succeed.
A project like Iran's would have its own setbacks even in ideal environment. When there are organizations working against it, it's likely to have even more setbacks.
It is also possible that these people are simply irrational or paranoid. Intelligence is always fragmentary and uncertain, but people who are intent on believing that Iran is a deadly enemy about to acquire a vast nuclear arsenal can interpret arbitrary data to justify that belief.
I don't think it's in dispute that Iran has nuclear aspirations, or that it's an enemy of Sunnis and Jews in the Middle East.
Whether they would actually manage to build a bomb and whether they'd actually use it are different questions - but given the Middle East's practices and history, not ones people would tend to ponder too long over.
Unfortunately this sort of success results in publicly perceived failure. For more examples, see y2k.