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Comment on Ask HN: Will tech be saturated in 10 years?parent

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What career choices are you making based on that assumption?

Some standard stuff: high savings rate, aggressive career progression to stay ahead, no specialization (which might get oversaturated e.g. all these new ML programs that colleges spin up).

I asked because none of the things you've mentioned are "standard". Except for the savings rate maybe.

Aggressive career progression - in a recession, it's often harder for senior people to find a job. Especially for managers (how many companies are looking for senior technical managers in your area?). Not advancing might be a valid preparation strategy.

No specialization - Again, there's something to be said for specializing in core IT areas which aren't booming. For instance storage technologies, networking, distributed systems, databases and data engineering. Heck, even being a top expert on something like JVM garbage collection. These areas are more mature and have a lower risk of oversaturation. Yet both big and small companies always need people with expertise in these fields.

Re: career advancement, there’s definitely a sweet spot, “senior” (google L5) makes 3x starting, beyond that it’s diminishing returns and gets further from code. As long as I write code I can phrase my resume to get a programming job.

Re: specialization, seems risky to me, either way full stack suits my interests.

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