Have you considered that your insight is actually failing to account for a variety of unknown unknowns you might have about the NYC subway system?
No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Keeping track of a few train cars isn't exactly the Manhattan Project, even if it has to be done underneath Manhattan.
The video suggests that the total budget for the CBTC retrofit was in the vicinity of $1 billion. I hope that I either misinterpreted it, or that the budget includes other improvements, because I doubt it cost that much (in 2018 dollars) to build the initial subway routes in the first place.
Look at it this way: why do you suppose your suggestions haven't been implemented yet? Do you think the vast array of parties with skin in the game haven't thought of them (and are thus incompetent)? Do you think they simply aren't motivated to implement them?
I think the vast array of parties with skin in the game have treated said "skin" as a target for optimization in itself. I'll readily admit they're likely better at that game than I am.
How can you say with any confidence that the unknown unknowns you have won’t be very hard to work around? That’s entirely the point of unknown unknowns - you don’t know what you don’t know.
(Shrug) I know how to figure out where some subway cars are and keep track of them for less than nine figures. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it, and I don't care if they don't; it's just an excuse for some meaningless chest-thumping on HN while waiting for Vivado to do its thing. :-P
If I lived in New York and had to pay for it, I'd probably find the question less interesting and more infuriating.
I would encourage you to submit a problem statement with your proposed method to TCRP research program [0,1]. Unfortunately the 2019 solicitation is closed, but the 2020 solicitation will open early next year. A better vehicle tracking method than the current block-level tracking is something that would be valuable to sub-surface transit system in the USA and if what you propose (or something similar) is feasible, the statement stands a real good chance of getting funded for a research project. And if the project is funded, you can even bid on the research work. I'm active on the TBR ADC040 subcommittee, if you have questions, hit me up (my twitter is on my profile) and I'll see if I can connect you to the right person.
I write this in all seriousness - this isn't a "if you're so smart why don't you do it" post, I'm writing this in acknowledgement that there are a lot of smart people on HN, and if there's a chance to improve US transit, I'm all for it.
I hear you, but unfortunately, I have no insights that any random EE (or advanced hobbyist) with some DSP experience wouldn't immediately bring up as well. It's safe to say that anything I could suggest has already ended up in plenty of proposals.
It would be interesting to understand just why this is considered a $100M-$1B problem, though. I'm curious enough to do some more reading.
No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around.
Please try some humility, for real. This isn't some guy's backyard train model project. This is a 24/7-running subway in one of the busiest cities in the world. Errors that result in shutdowns can cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in economical damage. Accidents can take hundreds to thousands of lives.
This attitude you have is the attitude of every single commenter who asks why Dropbox has "so many employees" when they "could build it in a weekend". It shows a huge amount of disrespect for complexity you aren't aware of; and by extension, things you're not aware of in general. It's the same attitude you find in project managers who don't understand XKCD1425 and "just want it done now it can't be that hard". The attitude of anti-vaxxers who dismiss expert opinions to rely on their gut feelings.
I don't know why it's so expensive, I haven't seen the breakdown, but my default reaction will be to dig further, rather than to dismiss people who have worked on subway systems infinitely more than me and casually throw in a "Nah, it's just keeping track of some train cars, nbd".
Comments
Have you considered that your insight is actually failing to account for a variety of unknown unknowns you might have about the NYC subway system?
No. Whatever the unknown unknowns are, they're not going to be that hard to work around. Keeping track of a few train cars isn't exactly the Manhattan Project, even if it has to be done underneath Manhattan.
The video suggests that the total budget for the CBTC retrofit was in the vicinity of $1 billion. I hope that I either misinterpreted it, or that the budget includes other improvements, because I doubt it cost that much (in 2018 dollars) to build the initial subway routes in the first place.
Look at it this way: why do you suppose your suggestions haven't been implemented yet? Do you think the vast array of parties with skin in the game haven't thought of them (and are thus incompetent)? Do you think they simply aren't motivated to implement them?
I think the vast array of parties with skin in the game have treated said "skin" as a target for optimization in itself. I'll readily admit they're likely better at that game than I am.
How can you say with any confidence that the unknown unknowns you have won’t be very hard to work around? That’s entirely the point of unknown unknowns - you don’t know what you don’t know.
(Shrug) I know how to figure out where some subway cars are and keep track of them for less than nine figures. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it, and I don't care if they don't; it's just an excuse for some meaningless chest-thumping on HN while waiting for Vivado to do its thing. :-P
If I lived in New York and had to pay for it, I'd probably find the question less interesting and more infuriating.
I would encourage you to submit a problem statement with your proposed method to TCRP research program [0,1]. Unfortunately the 2019 solicitation is closed, but the 2020 solicitation will open early next year. A better vehicle tracking method than the current block-level tracking is something that would be valuable to sub-surface transit system in the USA and if what you propose (or something similar) is feasible, the statement stands a real good chance of getting funded for a research project. And if the project is funded, you can even bid on the research work. I'm active on the TBR ADC040 subcommittee, if you have questions, hit me up (my twitter is on my profile) and I'll see if I can connect you to the right person.
I write this in all seriousness - this isn't a "if you're so smart why don't you do it" post, I'm writing this in acknowledgement that there are a lot of smart people on HN, and if there's a chance to improve US transit, I'm all for it.
[0] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/AboutTCRP.aspx [1] http://www.trb.org/TCRP/TCRPOverview.aspx
I hear you, but unfortunately, I have no insights that any random EE (or advanced hobbyist) with some DSP experience wouldn't immediately bring up as well. It's safe to say that anything I could suggest has already ended up in plenty of proposals.
It would be interesting to understand just why this is considered a $100M-$1B problem, though. I'm curious enough to do some more reading.
Please try some humility, for real. This isn't some guy's backyard train model project. This is a 24/7-running subway in one of the busiest cities in the world. Errors that result in shutdowns can cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in economical damage. Accidents can take hundreds to thousands of lives.
This attitude you have is the attitude of every single commenter who asks why Dropbox has "so many employees" when they "could build it in a weekend". It shows a huge amount of disrespect for complexity you aren't aware of; and by extension, things you're not aware of in general. It's the same attitude you find in project managers who don't understand XKCD1425 and "just want it done now it can't be that hard". The attitude of anti-vaxxers who dismiss expert opinions to rely on their gut feelings.
I don't know why it's so expensive, I haven't seen the breakdown, but my default reaction will be to dig further, rather than to dismiss people who have worked on subway systems infinitely more than me and casually throw in a "Nah, it's just keeping track of some train cars, nbd".