The only black swan connection I see is Taleb's point about "the graveyard of silent evidence". Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We didn't see all the planes returning that had catastrophic failures in the known bullet-holed areas and never returned.
Isn't that what the article is saying? "Don't forget the planes that didn't return", which is silent evidence because there's no evidence of its absence
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
The only black swan connection I see is Taleb's point about "the graveyard of silent evidence". Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. We didn't see all the planes returning that had catastrophic failures in the known bullet-holed areas and never returned.
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence"
I think Eliezer Yudkowsky strongly disagrees - http://lesswrong.com/lw/ih/absence_of_evidence_is_evidence_o...
Isn't that what the article is saying? "Don't forget the planes that didn't return", which is silent evidence because there's no evidence of its absence