Ok, that is really neat. I need to read more about this. I just did some searching on bayesian interference solution for the monty hall problem. And I am guessing they are applying the math whilst pretending to not have foreknowledge of the outcome?
I certainly don't expect you to research this or explain every detail for me, I may have to take a class on this subject after I retire to satisfy my need to grasp this. Thank you for time, this was enlightening.
just to chime in. The monty-hall problem is a pure math (probability-theory) and not statistics-excersize, since we know all the probabilities beforehand and don't estimate.
It's very important to distinguish between bayesian inference and the bayesian theorem. The bayesian theorem can be proven and therefore must be true (if we accept the axioms). Bayesian inference has some real philosophical problems, since we often have no way to choose a justified prior. Frequentists approaches may also use the Bayesian theorem.
The important difference is that one is the probability of P(x == car), which is 1/3, and one is P(x == car | y == goat). Just apply the bayes theorem and calculate it yourself!
Comments
Ok, that is really neat. I need to read more about this. I just did some searching on bayesian interference solution for the monty hall problem. And I am guessing they are applying the math whilst pretending to not have foreknowledge of the outcome?
https://sc5.io/posts/how-to-solve-the-monty-hall-problem-usi...
I certainly don't expect you to research this or explain every detail for me, I may have to take a class on this subject after I retire to satisfy my need to grasp this. Thank you for time, this was enlightening.
just to chime in. The monty-hall problem is a pure math (probability-theory) and not statistics-excersize, since we know all the probabilities beforehand and don't estimate.
It's very important to distinguish between bayesian inference and the bayesian theorem. The bayesian theorem can be proven and therefore must be true (if we accept the axioms). Bayesian inference has some real philosophical problems, since we often have no way to choose a justified prior. Frequentists approaches may also use the Bayesian theorem.
I always like the blog-posts of the angry statistician and he also has one about the monty-hall problem: http://angrystatistician.blogspot.com/2012/06/bayes-solution...
The important difference is that one is the probability of P(x == car), which is 1/3, and one is P(x == car | y == goat). Just apply the bayes theorem and calculate it yourself!