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Most companies buying mainframes, buy mainframes to run Linux and Java apps on it. The COBOL+mainframe market is not growing (very much). (source: talking with an IBM research director in Böblingen, Germany responsible for mainframe development)

Mainframes promise turnkey-reliability, where the IBM support guy comes in before you notice anything going wrong. The point is that "mainframe" is a strong brand and IBM has the monopoly on it. There are solutions magnitudes cheaper and just as reliable as a mainframe.

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