I think that's too simplistic of a connecting of dots.

You're conflating with overeating. I don't believe healthy people, that stay within a healthy caloric range, that aren't predisposed to diabetes need to fear that the "rise in blood sugar" from simple carbs is going to lead to diabetes. And I'm not aware of any study that shows that or even could (it'd be incredibly hard to study), correct me if wrong.

Most people eat simple carbs every day and don't get diabetes. Athletes eat a lot of carbs and don't get diabetes.