Look at the funds a specific "vintage" year, then look at:
1) Realized Returns/ Total Size of Fund
2) compare above to prior vintage years of same partnership/ similar funds
3) Look at unrealized returns as a percentage for this vintage across funds and for same partnership for prior funds for same years out.
The bulk (like 80%) of unrealized gains can disappear in a quarter if you have a large market correction.
Some of the variance is going to just be market conditions but in general the weaker those numbers that's a pretty bad sign.
Comments
Look at the funds a specific "vintage" year, then look at:
1) Realized Returns/ Total Size of Fund 2) compare above to prior vintage years of same partnership/ similar funds 3) Look at unrealized returns as a percentage for this vintage across funds and for same partnership for prior funds for same years out.
The bulk (like 80%) of unrealized gains can disappear in a quarter if you have a large market correction.
Some of the variance is going to just be market conditions but in general the weaker those numbers that's a pretty bad sign.