"No you don't; you think the likelihood of me being a psychopath has gone up slightly from its initially very low <1% likelihood. That's nowhere close to 50%, much less a confident 'I think [for sure]'. I don't know whether you are deliberately misunderstanding me here, despite my careful phrasing before, or just statistically innumerate."
No, you missed the possibility that I'm just being facetious with you to make some other point, a point which has seemed to evade you. I do understand and appreciate Bayesian reasoning, of course, but that's not really the point here.
Comments
"No you don't; you think the likelihood of me being a psychopath has gone up slightly from its initially very low <1% likelihood. That's nowhere close to 50%, much less a confident 'I think [for sure]'. I don't know whether you are deliberately misunderstanding me here, despite my careful phrasing before, or just statistically innumerate."
No, you missed the possibility that I'm just being facetious with you to make some other point, a point which has seemed to evade you. I do understand and appreciate Bayesian reasoning, of course, but that's not really the point here.