The fact that the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero is precisely the point. There is a "right" answer and we can get closer and closer to it if we choose what to study properly.
We know a lot more about exoplanets now than we did in 2003. We're moving on to find out how many are in the Goldilocks zone, or how many contain water. Our idea of what to plug in is slowly getting better.
Pointing out that the Drake equation is technically not science since it doesn't involve testable hypotheses is pointless pedantry. Call it statistics then. Or metaphysics. Or a thought experiment.
"We know a lot more about exoplanets now than we did in 2003. We're moving on to find out how many are in the Goldilocks zone, or how many contain water. Our idea of what to plug in is slowly getting better."
"Unfortunately", that's nailing down the one parameter that nobody has ever particularly questioned. There's some lines of thought that our solar system might be unusual in relevant ways, but nobody has ever seriously argued that the only planets in the galaxy are in our system, or anything related to that that would make that parameter small.
It's all the rest of the parameters where the mystery is.
I think you're right. It's even pretty self-evident that it isn't zero: First, if any of the factors in the equation were zero, then I wouldn't be typing this. Second, imagine if you rolled a die with an unknown number of sides a thousand times and only got to look at one result, which turned out to be a 2. Would you argue that it was totally plausible for the other 999 rolls to have produced 1's? Possible, yes, but not bloody likely, and all you need to do is look at the night sky to see there's some serious dice rolling going on.
Comments
The fact that the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero is precisely the point. There is a "right" answer and we can get closer and closer to it if we choose what to study properly.
We know a lot more about exoplanets now than we did in 2003. We're moving on to find out how many are in the Goldilocks zone, or how many contain water. Our idea of what to plug in is slowly getting better.
Pointing out that the Drake equation is technically not science since it doesn't involve testable hypotheses is pointless pedantry. Call it statistics then. Or metaphysics. Or a thought experiment.
"We know a lot more about exoplanets now than we did in 2003. We're moving on to find out how many are in the Goldilocks zone, or how many contain water. Our idea of what to plug in is slowly getting better."
"Unfortunately", that's nailing down the one parameter that nobody has ever particularly questioned. There's some lines of thought that our solar system might be unusual in relevant ways, but nobody has ever seriously argued that the only planets in the galaxy are in our system, or anything related to that that would make that parameter small.
It's all the rest of the parameters where the mystery is.
I think you're right. It's even pretty self-evident that it isn't zero: First, if any of the factors in the equation were zero, then I wouldn't be typing this. Second, imagine if you rolled a die with an unknown number of sides a thousand times and only got to look at one result, which turned out to be a 2. Would you argue that it was totally plausible for the other 999 rolls to have produced 1's? Possible, yes, but not bloody likely, and all you need to do is look at the night sky to see there's some serious dice rolling going on.