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If it start drifting away from Russia politically emergence of pro-russian rebels (surprisingly well armed) will be arranged by Putin.

It has never been politically close to Russia, even in the Soviet era, when it was a part of Yugoslavia. (Especially when it was Yugoslavia - Stalin tried to have Tito killed several times. They were both communist countries but that's the only thing common between them.)

Had they not been so warhungry in the 90s, they could be a part of EU and NATO now, like Croatia.

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