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Comment on Ask HN: What are the signs a piece of technology will become commoditized?

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On the supply side: No patents, or easy/cheap to license patents. Technical trade secrets don't remain so for very long. Large margins for one or a few suppliers/manufacturers.

This is basically what is happening with the smartphone business. First Apple started it. Then there were a few players like LG, Samsung, HTC, etc. Now everything and their uncle is starting a smartphone company. Companies like Lenovo, video con, not to mention the Asian upstarts from China and India which are definitely late entrants to the market.

On the demand side: Steadily increasing users: Early adopters not abandoning the product, but continuing to use it. Increasing numbers of early adopters in various social circles.

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