Many products/techologies follow the S-curve. Slow start, exponential growth, plateau (mature product, 3-5% growth per year) - and then slow death. From my perspective, we have a broad set of capabilities. Let's take transportation. There are performance attributes like time, speed, work, power, mechanical efficiency, etc. The wheel was a technology that was surpassed by the horse and buggy and then eventually the automobile. The capability is needed but the technology or family of products eventually becomes obsolete.
Commodity products are on the plateau. The technology has been proven and there is broad market acceptance. The unit cost has been brought down substantially from the point of market entry. Tesla's electric vehicles are pushing in this direction but it will still take some time.
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Many products/techologies follow the S-curve. Slow start, exponential growth, plateau (mature product, 3-5% growth per year) - and then slow death. From my perspective, we have a broad set of capabilities. Let's take transportation. There are performance attributes like time, speed, work, power, mechanical efficiency, etc. The wheel was a technology that was surpassed by the horse and buggy and then eventually the automobile. The capability is needed but the technology or family of products eventually becomes obsolete.
Commodity products are on the plateau. The technology has been proven and there is broad market acceptance. The unit cost has been brought down substantially from the point of market entry. Tesla's electric vehicles are pushing in this direction but it will still take some time.