How good are social scientists at forecasting?nber.org 4 pointsoatsandsugar9 months ago1 commentSaveHideCopy link On HNComments−oatsandsugarOP9mo[This paper] show[s] that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect.
Comments
[This paper] show[s] that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect.